Recent and Upcoming Seminars

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The Kelly Criterion: the application of information theory to horse racing
Caley Finn
University of Melbourne
Start time: 1:00 pm
Date: Tuesday 1 November 2011
Location: Room 213, Richard Berry Building, University of Melbourne

In his 1956 paper, Kelly imagined a gambler with a secret channel telling him the outcome of races - with perfect communication, the gambler could wager his entire bankroll and win every time. However, if instead this insider information is received through a noisy channel, with some probability of error, the gambler should bet only a fraction of his bankroll or face certain ruin. The Kelly criterion gives the fraction to bet in order to maximise growth of the bankroll. In this talk, Caley Finn will sketch the derivation of the Kelly criteria, tell you how it will make you rich (Thorpe, 1966), why it will plunge you into depression (Leib, 2000), and why it is of no use for an occasional bet on the horses. Caley will then apply it (inappropriately) to tell you how to spend your money on the Melbourne Cup.

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Adventures in Bayesian Statistics
Professor Kerrie Mengersen
Queensland University of Technology
Start time: 5:45 pm
Date: Tuesday 25 October 2011
Location: J H Michell Theatre, Richard Berry Building, Department of Mathematics & Statistics

The Maurice H. Belz Lecture.

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Thinking about sampling variability and replication: Confidence intervals beat p values
Emeritus Professor Geoff Cumming
Statistical Cognition Laboratory, School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University
Start time: 12:00 pm
Date: Friday 21 October 2011
Location: Room 310 (Access Grid Room), Physical Sciences 2, La Trobe University, Bundoora Campus

Understanding sampling variability is an important goal. A useful approach is to consider replication. What information do inferential techniques give about replication? Confidence intervals (CIs) do well: A 95% CI is, approximately, an 83% prediction interval for the mean of a replication experiment. A p value, however, gives almost no information about a replication result. CIs beat p values, although for very small N a CI may be misleading. Professor Cumming will present novel graphics and simulations, and emphasise cognition - how people read graphics and draw conclusions. There is more in his book: 'Understanding The New Statistics: Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Meta-Analysis', Routledge, 2012. www.thenewstatistics.com. Contact: Dr Andriy Olenko; Statistics Seminar Convenor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, a.olenko@latrobe.edu.au

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Forecasting Model Validation
Julia Polak
Monash University
Start time: 11:00 am
Date: Friday 7 October 2011
Location: Room 310 (Access Grid Room), Physical Sciences 2, La Trobe University, Bundoora

Forecasting models play a crucial role in many decision-making areas. Many tools have been developed for model selection and validation (on available data) but only a few exist for answering the question whether the model under the test is still valid for the new observations. This is especially true when one is looking for a quick answer after a small number of extra observations have become available or examining a nonparametric model. We present a method for analyzing the model, which has already been selected, and examine whether its predictive ability is still good enough or the model needs to be reworked. The proposed prediction capability procedure combines the ideas of nonparametric density estimation and principal function data analysis in order to clarify the question whether the new observed data comes from the same expected data generation process or not. If there is not enough evidence that the data generation process has been changed after the model has been selected, there is no reason to believe that the model lost its predictive abilities in the new reality. Contact: Dr Andriy Olenko: a.olenko@latrobe.edu.au

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HPC Forum at University of Melbourne
Kimberly Powell

Start time: 3:00 pm
Date: Thursday 29 September 2011
Location: The University of Melbourne, Parkville Campus 207 Bouverie Street, Theatre 1 (entrance at 221 Bouverie Street)

3.00-4.00pm: Kimberly Powell, Life Sciences specialist from NVIDIA, will be sharing her expertise in developing high performance computing approaches to addressing the world's most challenging Life Sciences and Medical Imaging research problems. 4.00 – 5.00pm: tea/coffee/discussion. No RSVP. If you require further information, please send an email to Forum Coordinator Sara Ogston, sogston@unimelb.edu.au. The University of Melbourne ITS Research Services, IBM Research Collaboratory for Life Sciences and the Victorian Life Sciences Computation Initiative (VLSCI) formed the HPC Forum to connect Victorian researchers and students with an interest in high performance computation. Regular meetings are usually held monthly, with additional special events.

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